Karabağ 3-1 Sebail FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 27 Feb 2025

📅27/02/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.18
Draw
16%
6.26
Away
21%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
80%
-17.7pp
16%
Draw
13%
+3.3pp
21%
Away Win
7%
+14.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.5pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
2.43/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/2.21
-23% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +38%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
459 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Sebail FK
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
11.02.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 5-0 HT 0-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
06.02.2025 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
23.11.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
14.09.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 2-1 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
03.02.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
12.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Sebail FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ saw off Sebail FK 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Karabağ and 0.50 for Sebail FK.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Sebail FK?

Karabağ 3-1 Sebail FK in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 27/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Sebail FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 63%, draw 16%, Sebail FK 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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