Kelty Hearts 3-1 Montrose — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
43%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-2.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
43%
Away Win
38%
+4.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.9pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kelty Hearts EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Montrose EU Bookmakers 42%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +5%
0.89/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.18
-36% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kelty Hearts
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Montrose
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
03.03.2026 Montrose Montrose 1-1 HT 1-0 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
06.12.2025 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 0-3 HT 0-2 Montrose Montrose İK1
09.08.2025 Montrose Montrose 1-2 HT 1-1 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
08.03.2025 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 0-0 HT 0-0 Montrose Montrose İK1
04.01.2025 Montrose Montrose 0-0 HT 0-0 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts İK1
19.10.2024 Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts 0-2 HT 0-0 Montrose Montrose İK1
POST-MATCH Kelty Hearts vs Montrose
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kelty Hearts beat Montrose 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Montrose at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montrose led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kelty Hearts and 1.17 for Montrose.

What was the final score of Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?

Kelty Hearts 3-1 Montrose in the Scotland - 1st Division on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?

Before kick-off our model rated an Montrose win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kelty Hearts 32%, draw 25%, Montrose 43%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Montrose) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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