Rot-Weiss Essen 4-1 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.59
Over 2.5
54%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.38
2-3 Goals
35%
1.98
4-5 Goals
29%
2.55
6+ Goals
12%
5.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.04
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
15%
4.48
X/2
7%
9.83
X/X
12%
6.64
2/1
10%
18.75
2/2
10%
6.75
2/X
6%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-6.2pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.2pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.2pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 25%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
2.19/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.48
+19% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
19.5 Crosses 14.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ingolstadt
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
256 Passes 352
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.11.2025 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-2 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
22.02.2025 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-0 HT 1-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
21.09.2024 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-2 HT 1-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
28.04.2024 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 4-0 HT 3-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
25.11.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-1 HT 2-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
25.02.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
4-1
AWAY Ingolstadt
54% Ball Possession 46%
33 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 5
14 Corners 8
259 Passes 218
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rot-Weiss Essen vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rot-Weiss Essen cruised past Ingolstadt 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rot-Weiss Essen as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Rot-Weiss Essen had 54% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 46%, shots finished 33-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rot-Weiss Essen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 1.00 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Rot-Weiss Essen vs Ingolstadt?

Rot-Weiss Essen 4-1 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rot-Weiss Essen vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rot-Weiss Essen win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Rot-Weiss Essen 51%, draw 24%, Ingolstadt 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
11 Apr 2026
15:00 Havelse vs Saarbrücken Analysis →
15:00 Viktoria Köln vs Wehen Wiesbaden Analysis →
15:00 Waldhof Mannheim vs MSV Duisburg Analysis →
15:00 Alemannia Aachen vs Stuttgart II Analysis →
17:30 Hansa Rostock vs Ulm 1846 Analysis →