Ingolstadt 2-2 Rot-Weiss Essen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 21 Sep 2024

Ingolstadt
2-2 HT 1-1
Rot-Weiss Essen
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.43
Over 2.5
55%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.98
4-5 Goals
25%
2.69
6+ Goals
13%
6.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.18
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.55
X/1
11%
4.4
X/2
9%
9.35
X/X
13%
6.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.25
2/2
12%
6.15
2/X
6%
13.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.25 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.4pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ingolstadt v Rot-Weiss Essen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 27%
-8% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.49/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.39
-16% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 75%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
22.7 Crosses –
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ingolstadt
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.04.2024 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 4-0 HT 3-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
25.11.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-1 HT 2-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
25.02.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
20.08.2022 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-2 HT 2-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3

Ingolstadt 2-2 Rot-Weiss Essen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ingolstadt
2-2
AWAY Rot-Weiss Essen
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
338 Passes 332
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt and Rot-Weiss Essen couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ingolstadt at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Ingolstadt had 50% of the ball to Rot-Weiss Essen's 50%, shots finished 11-18.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Ingolstadt and 2.00 for Rot-Weiss Essen.

What was the final score of Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

Ingolstadt 2-2 Rot-Weiss Essen in the Germany - 3rd Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ingolstadt vs Rot-Weiss Essen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ingolstadt win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ingolstadt 50%, draw 24%, Rot-Weiss Essen 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ingolstadt) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ingolstadt) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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