Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 1860 München — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.83
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 32% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.21
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.05
X/1
18%
4.12
X/2
9%
9.35
X/X
11%
5.27
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2
13%
6.91
2/X
8%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.3pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY 1860 München EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +18%
1.03/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.65
-42% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
36.0 Crosses 16.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
4W-1D-1L
AWAY 1860 München
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
241 Passes 353
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 1860 München 1860 München 0-2 HT 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
17.12.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 HT 2-0 1860 München 1860 München AL3
17.01.2019 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 HT 1-1 1860 München 1860 München HAZ
03.02.2017 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 HT 2-1 1860 München 1860 München AL2
14.08.2016 1860 München 1860 München 1-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
20.03.2016 1860 München 1860 München 1-1 HT 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
0-1
AWAY 1860 München
70% Ball Possession 30%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
462 Passes 148
84% Pass Accuracy 62%
27 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs 1860 München
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

1860 München squeezed past Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Arminia Bielefeld at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 70% of the ball to 1860 München's 30%, shots finished 19-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arminia Bielefeld had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 0.67 for 1860 München.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs 1860 München?

Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 1860 München in the Germany - 3rd Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1860 München?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arminia Bielefeld win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 46%, draw 25%, 1860 München 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arminia Bielefeld) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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