Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
3.33
6+ Goals
12%
12.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 29% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +14%
1.33/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.43
-13% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
22.6 Crosses 13.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Istra 1961
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.36 xG 1.06
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
267 Passes 369
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.01.2026 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
25.10.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-2 HT 1-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
09.08.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
03.05.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
04.03.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 3-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIRK
28.02.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-2 HT 3-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
2-0
AWAY Istra 1961
1.09 xG 0.78
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
260 Passes 357
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb got the better of Istra 1961 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lokomotiva Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 44% of the ball to Istra 1961's 56%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.09 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.83 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 53%, draw 24%, Istra 1961 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →