Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Deportes Tolima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 21%
+6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +20%
1.22/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.07
+1% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 78%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
21.3 Crosses 12.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Deportes Tolima
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.46 xG 0.97
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
237 Passes 360
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 1
12.07.2025 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 3-2 HT 2-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
28.01.2025 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
03.10.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOLK
18.09.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-2 HT 1-2 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOLK
24.07.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
27.01.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-4 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
1-0
AWAY Deportes Tolima
0.20 xG 0.69
54% Ball Possession 46%
2 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
237 Passes 171
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
14 Box Touches 8
9 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Pasto nicked a narrow win over Deportes Tolima 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Deportivo Pasto as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 54% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 46%, shots finished 2-9, expected goals 0.20 to 0.69 — the balance of chances actually favoured Deportes Tolima.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 2.00 for Deportes Tolima.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?

Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 50%, draw 25%, Deportes Tolima 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Pasto), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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