Newcastle United 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 11 May 2024

Newcastle United
1-1 HT 1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
2.89
Over 2.5
67%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.85
2-3 Goals
36%
2.17
4-5 Goals
32%
2.48
6+ Goals
15%
4.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.95
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
16%
4.28
X/2
9%
10.7
X/X
8%
7.32
2/1
11%
18.35
2/2
13%
6.65
2/X
6%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-6.3pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.5pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.9pp
33%
Under 2.5
31%
+1.5pp
67%
Over 2.5
69%
-1.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.2pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Brighton & Hove Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
2.27/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.64
+13% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%
34.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.2 Crosses 13.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.18 xG 1.21
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
256 Passes 499
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 3-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
18.05.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-1 HT 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
13.08.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
05.03.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-1 HT 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
06.11.2021 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
20.03.2021 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 3-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Newcastle United 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
1-1
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
2.22 xG 1.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
485 Passes 378
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
43 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United and Brighton & Hove Albion couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle United at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (67%) missed.

On the day, Newcastle United had 56% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 44%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 2.22 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Newcastle United and 1.50 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Newcastle United 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 52%, draw 20%, Brighton & Hove Albion 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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