FC Cincinnati 2-1 Austin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.01
6+ Goals
9%
9.64
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 28% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.17
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.05
X/1
19%
4.38
X/2
8%
9.81
X/X
12%
5.61
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
12%
7.49
2/X
6%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-9.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.5pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.9pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Austin EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.74/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.72
-11% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 81%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
13.8 Crosses 17.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Austin
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
1.71 xG 2.38
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
293 Passes 407
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2022 Austin Austin 5-0 HT 3-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
2-1
AWAY Austin
2.03 xG 1.98
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 1
440 Passes 323
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs Austin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past Austin 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 56% of the ball to Austin's 44%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.03 to 1.98.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Austin?

FC Cincinnati 2-1 Austin in the USA - Major League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs Austin?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 46%, draw 27%, Austin 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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