St. Louis City 1-2 San Diego — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
33%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.36
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
31%
2.79
6+ Goals
9%
7.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.15
1/2
5%
22.9
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1 EV+ ✗
17%
6.59
X/2
10%
5.48
X/X
16%
5.63
2/1
5%
27.0
2/2
18%
3.13
2/X
4%
12.75
Value flag · X/1 at 6.59 — our 17% vs market 11.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
33%
Away Win
41%
-7.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.6pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY San Diego EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -51% / -51%
1.22/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/3.40
+2% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -55%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
309 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 84%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
20.1 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Louis City
0W-1D-0L
AWAY San Diego
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.06 xG 0.97
28% Ball Possession 72%
2 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 9
215 Passes 629
77% Pass Accuracy 90%
7 Box Touches 36
6 Crosses 35
5 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2025 San Diego 0-0 HT 0-0 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Louis City
1-2
AWAY San Diego
1.62 xG 1.09
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
312 Passes 514
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
24 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Louis City vs San Diego
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Diego nicked a narrow win over St. Louis City 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day San Diego made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, St. Louis City had 40% of the ball to San Diego's 60%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.62 to 1.09 — the balance of chances actually favoured St. Louis City.

What was the final score of St. Louis City vs San Diego?

St. Louis City 1-2 San Diego in the USA - Major League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Louis City vs San Diego?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Louis City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split St. Louis City 39%, draw 28%, San Diego 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Louis City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Louis City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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