New York City FC 0-1 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.7
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 28% vs market 20.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.53
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
17%
4.72
X/2
9%
8.19
X/X
13%
5.24
2/1
9%
22.9
2/2
13%
5.95
2/X
7%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.9pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
1.86/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.62
-4% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 78%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
17.0 Crosses 14.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
4W-1D-1L
AWAY CF Montreal
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.38 xG 1.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
386 Passes 425
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 23
7 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
04.07.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 2-0 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
31.08.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 2-0 HT 2-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
02.07.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 0-1 HT 0-1 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
23.10.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-3 HT 0-2 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
31.07.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 0-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
0-1
AWAY CF Montreal
0.87 xG 1.27
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 11
459 Passes 272
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 37
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Montreal squeezed past New York City FC 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was New York City FC at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, New York City FC had 60% of the ball to CF Montreal's 40%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 0.87 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for New York City FC and 0.50 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs CF Montreal?

New York City FC 0-1 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 45%, draw 26%, CF Montreal 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (New York City FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New York City FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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