Orlando City 3-3 New England Revolution — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 11 May 2025

Orlando City
3-3 HT 2-2
New England Revolution
📅11/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2025

Orlando City vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
2.99
6+ Goals
12%
9.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.14
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.35
X/1
16%
4.33
X/2
8%
9.9
X/X
12%
5.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.6
2/2
12%
7.59
2/X
5%
15.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.6 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.0pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Orlando City v New England Revolution — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.83/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.96
+8% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
420 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 79%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
18.8 Crosses 17.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Orlando City vs New England Revolution Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY New England Revolution
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.24 xG 1.05
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
394 Passes 394
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
30 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.09.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 3-0 HT 2-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
14.07.2024 New England Revolution New England Revolution 1-3 HT 1-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
08.10.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 3-2 HT 3-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
18.06.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 3-1 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
07.08.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 0-3 HT 0-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
16.06.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 1-1 HT 1-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD

Orlando City 3-3 New England Revolution — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
3-3
AWAY New England Revolution
2.78 xG 2.37
47% Ball Possession 53%
22 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
321 Passes 353
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
47 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs New England Revolution
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City and New England Revolution couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Orlando City at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Orlando City had 47% of the ball to New England Revolution's 53%, shots finished 22-15, expected goals 2.78 to 2.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Orlando City and 1.67 for New England Revolution.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs New England Revolution?

Orlando City 3-3 New England Revolution in the USA - Major League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs New England Revolution?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 52%, draw 23%, New England Revolution 24%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Orlando City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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