Trans Narva 4-2 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
6%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.1pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 25%
-29% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +14%
1.22/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.19
-33% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +70% / +39%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trans Narva
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.04.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 HT 0-2 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
27.10.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
20.07.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
15.06.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-4 HT 0-2 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
04.05.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 0-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
27.09.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2 HT 1-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trans Narva
4-2
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
7 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trans Narva got the better of Parnu JK Vaprus 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Trans Narva as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Trans Narva had 45% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 55%, shots finished 10-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trans Narva had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Trans Narva and 1.00 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Trans Narva 4-2 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trans Narva win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Trans Narva 46%, draw 25%, Parnu JK Vaprus 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trans Narva), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Trans Narva) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EST1 More Estonia - Premium League
11 May 2025
14:30 FC Levadia vs Paide Linnameeskond Analysis →