Ajax 0-3 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.27
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.59
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.64
2-3 Goals
38%
2.04
4-5 Goals
26%
2.57
6+ Goals
11%
5.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.4
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
23.3
X/1
14%
3.9
X/2
6%
23.3
X/X
8%
9.37
2/1
9%
21.5
2/2
5%
19.5
2/X
6%
27.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
74%
-12.6pp
22%
Draw
16%
+5.5pp
17%
Away Win
10%
+7.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 12%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +24%
2.72/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/2.05
+18% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +38%
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
464 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 74%
47.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
22.7 Crosses 12.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
4W-2D-0L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.04 xG 1.40
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
466 Passes 294
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
42 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.12.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-2 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
18.02.2024 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
03.12.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-2 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
05.03.2023 Ajax Ajax 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
08.01.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
23.04.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
0-3
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
2.62 xG 0.80
65% Ball Possession 35%
22 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 1
535 Passes 250
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
46 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen cruised past Ajax 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Ajax carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ajax had 65% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 35%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.62 to 0.80 — on chances, Ajax could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ajax and 0.83 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?

Ajax 0-3 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Ajax 62%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 17%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ajax) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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