Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Corinthians v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-1
Corinthians
BR1
2-0
HT 2-0
Corinthians
BRK
Corinthians 3-2 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics
Corinthians squeezed past Sao Paulo 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Corinthians had 49% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 51%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.49 to 1.12.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Corinthians and 2.00 for Sao Paulo.
What was the final score of Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Corinthians 3-2 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 46%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.