Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Gremio v Flamengo — Team-Based Signals
Gremio vs Flamengo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-2
HT 0-1
Flamengo
BR1
1-0
HT 0-0
Gremio
BRK
Gremio 0-1 Flamengo — Actual Match Statistics
Flamengo nicked a narrow win over Gremio 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Gremio had 32% of the ball to Flamengo's 68%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 0.40 to 2.27 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Flamengo's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gremio and 1.67 for Flamengo.
What was the final score of Gremio vs Flamengo?
Gremio 0-1 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Before kick-off our model rated an Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Gremio 24%, draw 24%, Flamengo 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.