Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vasco da Gama v Atletico Paranaense — Team-Based Signals
Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Paranaense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Vasco da Gama
BR1
0-2
HT 0-0
Atletico Paranaense
BR1
Vasco da Gama 1-0 Atletico Paranaense — Actual Match Statistics
Vasco da Gama edged past Atletico Paranaense 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Vasco da Gama had 53% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 47%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.11 to 0.90 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vasco da Gama's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.17 for Atletico Paranaense.
What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Vasco da Gama 1-0 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 51%, draw 24%, Atletico Paranaense 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.