Sportivo Ameliano 3-2 Deportivo Recoleta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 11 May 2026

📅11/05/2026 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-2.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta EU Bookmakers 29%
-13% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +12%
1.59/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.21
+6% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +80% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2026 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 1-1 HT 0-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
29.09.2025 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 1-4 HT 0-2 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta PAR
22.07.2025 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 3-1 HT 0-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
11.05.2025 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 1-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta PAR
01.03.2025 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 1-1 HT 0-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
3-2
AWAY Deportivo Recoleta
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sportivo Ameliano edged past Deportivo Recoleta 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sportivo Ameliano as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sportivo Ameliano had 51% of the ball to Deportivo Recoleta's 49%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Deportivo Recoleta led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sportivo Ameliano and 2.20 for Deportivo Recoleta.

What was the final score of Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?

Sportivo Ameliano 3-2 Deportivo Recoleta in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sportivo Ameliano win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sportivo Ameliano 45%, draw 27%, Deportivo Recoleta 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sportivo Ameliano), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sportivo Ameliano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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