Brezilya 1-0 Paraguay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 11 Jun 2025

📅11/06/2025 · 🕒03:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.4
No
62%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
4.05
6+ Goals
10%
19.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 35% vs market 29.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.72
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
20.7
X/1
18%
3.6
X/2
6%
15.95
X/X
11%
5.38
2/1
11%
28.5
2/2
6%
15.6
2/X
6%
24.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
67%
-6.3pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
16%
Away Win
12%
+4.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.8pp
38%
BTTS Yes
38%
+0.4pp
62%
BTTS No
62%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brezilya EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Paraguay EU Bookmakers 14%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +10%
1.88/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.31
+8% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +118%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
440 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.1
12.7 Crosses 8.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brezilya
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Paraguay
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.25 xG 0.50
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
476 Passes 225
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.09.2024 Paraguay Paraguay 1-0 HT 1-0 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
29.06.2024 Paraguay Paraguay 1-4 HT 0-3 Brezilya Brezilya AKU
02.02.2022 Brezilya Brezilya 4-0 HT 1-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
09.06.2021 Paraguay Paraguay 0-2 HT 0-1 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
28.06.2019 Brezilya Brezilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Paraguay Paraguay AKU
29.03.2017 Brezilya Brezilya 3-0 HT 1-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brezilya
1-0
AWAY Paraguay
2.20 xG 0.22
73% Ball Possession 27%
11 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 3
496 Passes 126
86% Pass Accuracy 59%
32 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brezilya vs Paraguay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brezilya nicked a narrow win over Paraguay 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Brezilya as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Brezilya had 73% of the ball to Paraguay's 27%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 2.20 to 0.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brezilya's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brezilya had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Brezilya and 0.33 for Paraguay.

What was the final score of Brezilya vs Paraguay?

Brezilya 1-0 Paraguay in the World Cup Qualifiers on 11/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brezilya vs Paraguay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brezilya win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Brezilya 60%, draw 24%, Paraguay 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brezilya), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brezilya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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