Mali 1-0 Gine Bissau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
22%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.56
Over 2.5
39%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.81
No
62%
1.38
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
40%
2.38
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.05
6+ Goals
6%
30.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.38 — our 40% vs market 35.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
68%
-13.7pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
60%
+0.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
40%
-0.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
32%
+6.8pp
62%
BTTS No
68%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mali EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Gine Bissau EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.79/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/0.97
+22% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +13%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
345 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
13.2 Crosses 10.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mali
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Gine Bissau
6.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
06.01.2024 Mali Mali 6-2 HT 3-2 Gine Bissau Gine Bissau HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mali
1-0
AWAY Gine Bissau
1.22 xG 0.05
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 3
273 Passes 214
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 6
23 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mali vs Gine Bissau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mali edged past Gine Bissau 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mali as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Mali had 55% of the ball to Gine Bissau's 45%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 1.22 to 0.05.

What was the final score of Mali vs Gine Bissau?

Mali 1-0 Gine Bissau in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mali vs Gine Bissau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mali win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Mali 55%, draw 24%, Gine Bissau 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mali), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mali) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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