Estonya 1-3 İtalya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 11 Oct 2025

Estonya
1-3 HT 0-2
İtalya
📅11/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Estonya vs İtalya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
8%
12.23
Draw
17%
8.11
Away
75%
1.1
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
3.14
Over 2.5
56%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.53
No
54%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
7.29
2-3 Goals
40%
2.24
4-5 Goals
27%
2.37
6+ Goals
9%
4.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
3%
35.0
1/2
9%
30.0
1/X
4%
35.0
X/1
3%
35.0
X/2 EV+ ✗
27%
3.93
X/X
9%
14.75
2/1
3%
35.0
2/2
39%
1.13
2/X
3%
35.0
Value flag · X/2 at 3.93 — our 27% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
8%
Home Win
5%
+2.5pp
17%
Draw
9%
+7.6pp
76%
Away Win
86%
-10.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
28%
+15.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
72%
-15.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
36%
+10.8pp
54%
BTTS No
64%
-10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estonya v İtalya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estonya EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY İtalya EU Bookmakers 91%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
0.57/2.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.51/0.61
+28% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +150%
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
210 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 463 · 85%
10.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.6
13.3 Crosses 21.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Estonya vs İtalya Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estonya
0W-0D-4L
AWAY İtalya
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
0.28 xG 3.77
30% Ball Possession 70%
6 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 8
200 Passes 589
73% Pass Accuracy 90%
8 Box Touches 44
10 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.09.2025 İtalya İtalya 5-0 HT 0-0 Estonya Estonya DKE
11.11.2020 İtalya İtalya 4-0 HT 2-0 Estonya Estonya HAZ
03.06.2011 İtalya İtalya 3-0 HT 2-0 Estonya Estonya AVR
03.09.2010 Estonya Estonya 1-2 HT 1-0 İtalya İtalya AVR

Estonya 1-3 İtalya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estonya
1-3
AWAY İtalya
0.99 xG 2.31
36% Ball Possession 64%
2 Total Shots 24
1 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 8
247 Passes 507
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
6 Box Touches 40
6 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estonya vs İtalya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İtalya beat Estonya 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had İtalya as the likeliest winner at 76%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Estonya had 36% of the ball to İtalya's 64%, shots finished 2-24, expected goals 0.99 to 2.31.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, İtalya led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Estonya and 3.50 for İtalya.

What was the final score of Estonya vs İtalya?

Estonya 1-3 İtalya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 11/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estonya vs İtalya?

Before kick-off our model rated an İtalya win the most likely single outcome at about 76%, with the full match-result split Estonya 8%, draw 17%, İtalya 76%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İtalya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İtalya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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