Barry Town 2-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 11 Oct 2025

📅11/10/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
47%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.33
2-3 Goals
34%
1.86
4-5 Goals
29%
2.77
6+ Goals
10%
7.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
11%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-4.2pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.1pp
47%
Away Win
41%
+6.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.2pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barry Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 45%
-8% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.17/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/1.69
-17% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -35%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
344 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barry Town
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.09.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 2-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
26.04.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 5-2 HT 2-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
14.12.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-2 HT 2-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
21.09.2024 Barry Town Barry Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
19.11.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-3 HT 2-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
30.09.2023 Barry Town Barry Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barry Town
2-2
AWAY Caernarfon Town
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barry Town and Caernarfon Town couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Caernarfon Town at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Barry Town had 49% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 51%, shots finished 16-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Barry Town and 2.83 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town?

Barry Town 2-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 11/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barry Town vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Barry Town 30%, draw 23%, Caernarfon Town 47%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caernarfon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
11 Oct 2025
14:30 Briton Ferry vs Connahs Quay Analysis →
16:30 Flint Town United vs Llanelli Town Analysis →
16:30 Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MU Analysis →
19:15 The New Saints vs Penybont Analysis →