Salernitana 1-2 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
45%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.96
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
24.3
1/X
5%
13.9
X/1
13%
8.15
X/2
13%
4.46
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.55
2/X
7%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.3 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+6.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
45%
Away Win
49%
-3.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 53%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +28%
1.29/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/0.98
+22% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +67% / +12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
21.8 Crosses 18.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sassuolo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.93 xG 2.44
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
356 Passes 407
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 35
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Sassuolo Sassuolo 4-0 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
05.04.2024 Salernitana Salernitana 2-2 HT 0-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
10.11.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-2 HT 1-2 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
22.04.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 3-0 HT 2-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
02.10.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 5-0 HT 2-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
12.03.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 2-2 HT 1-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
1-2
AWAY Sassuolo
1.60 xG 1.48
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
368 Passes 491
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 22
34 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo squeezed past Salernitana 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sassuolo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Salernitana had 46% of the ball to Sassuolo's 54%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.60 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Salernitana and 2.50 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Sassuolo?

Salernitana 1-2 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie B on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 32%, draw 24%, Sassuolo 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sassuolo), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✓ Over 2.5
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