Cardiff City 0-1 Stoke City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.67
Over
38%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.63
2-3
41%
1.76
4-5
17%
4.28
6+
8%
21.6
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.63 — our 34% vs market 31.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.3
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
12%
4.92
X/2
8%
6.39
X/X
13%
4.21
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
15%
4.92
2/X
8%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.5pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Stoke City EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -14%
1.14/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.39
-2% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
290 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 75%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
19.5 Crosses 17.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff City
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Stoke City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.10 xG 1.26
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
303 Passes 398
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.02.2025 Stoke City Stoke City 3-3 HT 1-2 Cardiff City Cardiff City FAK
14.12.2024 Stoke City Stoke City 2-2 HT 1-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
24.02.2024 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-1 HT 2-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
04.11.2023 Stoke City Stoke City 0-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
22.04.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-1 HT 1-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
10.12.2022 Stoke City Stoke City 2-2 HT 2-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff City
0-1
AWAY Stoke City
1.52 xG 1.07
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
258 Passes 220
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cardiff City vs Stoke City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City edged past Cardiff City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cardiff City at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Cardiff City had 51% of the ball to Stoke City's 49%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.52 to 1.07 — the balance of chances actually favoured Cardiff City.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff City had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cardiff City and 1.50 for Stoke City.

What was the final score of Cardiff City vs Stoke City?

Cardiff City 0-1 Stoke City in the England - Championship on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff City vs Stoke City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 41%, draw 28%, Stoke City 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cardiff City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cardiff City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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