Cardiff City vs Stoke City Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cardiff City v Stoke City — Team-Based Signals
Cardiff City vs Stoke City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Cardiff City
İNCL
1-1
HT 1-1
Stoke City
İNCL
2-2
HT 2-1
Cardiff City
İNCL
Cardiff City 0-1 Stoke City — Actual Match Statistics
Stoke City edged past Cardiff City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Cardiff City at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.
On the day, Cardiff City had 51% of the ball to Stoke City's 49%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.52 to 1.07 — the balance of chances actually favoured Cardiff City.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff City had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cardiff City and 1.50 for Stoke City.
What was the final score of Cardiff City vs Stoke City?
Cardiff City 0-1 Stoke City in the England - Championship on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cardiff City vs Stoke City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 41%, draw 28%, Stoke City 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cardiff City) went the other way.