Real Murcia 1-1 Ceuta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
34%
2.94
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
64%
1.51
Over
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.17
2-3
42%
1.76
4-5
17%
5.19
6+
7%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.5pp
34%
Draw
30%
+3.3pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-0.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.6pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Murcia EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceuta EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.02/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/0.87
-19% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +31%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Murcia
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Ceuta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
4 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
03.11.2024 Ceuta Ceuta 4-2 HT 3-1 Real Murcia Real Murcia İS3
28.04.2024 Real Murcia Real Murcia 1-0 HT 1-0 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
05.11.2023 Ceuta Ceuta 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Murcia Real Murcia İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Murcia
1-1
AWAY Ceuta
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Real Murcia vs Ceuta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Murcia and Ceuta shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 34% / 27% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

On the day, Real Murcia had 49% of the ball to Ceuta's 51%, shots finished 10-4.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ceuta led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Real Murcia and 1.67 for Ceuta.

What was the final score of Real Murcia vs Ceuta?

Real Murcia 1-1 Ceuta in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Murcia vs Ceuta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Murcia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Real Murcia 39%, draw 34%, Ceuta 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Murcia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Murcia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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