Perugia 2-2 Sestri Levante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.94
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.66
6+ Goals
10%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
59%
-8.9pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.5pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+6.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.9pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perugia EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.54/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.66
-11% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
451 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perugia
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Sestri Levante
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.12.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 2-2 HT 1-2 Perugia Perugia İTC
09.02.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 1-0 HT 0-0 Perugia Perugia İTC
01.10.2023 Perugia Perugia 1-0 HT 1-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perugia
2-2
AWAY Sestri Levante
70% Ball Possession 30%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Perugia vs Sestri Levante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perugia and Sestri Levante shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Perugia at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Perugia had 70% of the ball to Sestri Levante's 30%, shots finished 18-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Perugia and 1.00 for Sestri Levante.

What was the final score of Perugia vs Sestri Levante?

Perugia 2-2 Sestri Levante in the Italy - Serie C on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perugia vs Sestri Levante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Perugia 50%, draw 26%, Sestri Levante 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Perugia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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