Hamburg II 4-2 St. Pauli II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.95
Over 2.5
56%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg II EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli II EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
2.35/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.34
+41% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg II
5W-1D-0L
AWAY St. Pauli II
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 1-4 HT 1-1 Hamburg II Hamburg II ALMBÖL
31.03.2024 Hamburg II Hamburg II 2-0 HT 0-0 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
30.09.2023 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 0-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg II Hamburg II ALMBÖL
21.04.2023 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 2-4 HT 1-1 Hamburg II Hamburg II ALMBÖL
14.10.2022 Hamburg II Hamburg II 5-1 HT 3-0 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
24.10.2021 Hamburg II Hamburg II 2-2 HT 2-0 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Hamburg II vs St. Pauli II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg II got the better of St. Pauli II 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Hamburg II found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg II had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Hamburg II and 1.00 for St. Pauli II.

What was the final score of Hamburg II vs St. Pauli II?

Hamburg II 4-2 St. Pauli II in the Germany - Regional League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg II vs St. Pauli II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Hamburg II 40%, draw 27%, St. Pauli II 33%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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