Matsumoto Yamaga 4-1 Omiya Ardija — Result, Statistics & Match Review — JAP2-3, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.61
No
39%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.01
6+ Goals
12%
9.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.2pp
61%
BTTS Yes
58%
+3.3pp
39%
BTTS No
42%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 48%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.33/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.50/1.50
+61% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +89% / -14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
218 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.7 Crosses 20.0
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Omiya Ardija
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
311 Passes 329
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.02.2026 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 2-1 HT 2-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2-3
07.09.2024 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP3
06.05.2024 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 0-2 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
29.08.2021 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 4-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
19.06.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
21.10.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 HT 0-1 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
4-1
AWAY Omiya Ardija
28% Ball Possession 72%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
115 Passes 410
56% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga cruised past Omiya Ardija 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Omiya Ardija at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 28% of the ball to Omiya Ardija's 72%, shots finished 17-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Omiya Ardija led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.33 for Omiya Ardija.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija?

Matsumoto Yamaga 4-1 Omiya Ardija in the JAP2-3 on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Omiya Ardija?

Before kick-off our model rated an Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 32%, draw 26%, Omiya Ardija 41%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Omiya Ardija) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Omiya Ardija) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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