Indy Eleven 3-1 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
22%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.4
6+ Goals
8%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 32% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
49%
+2.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-1.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 27%
-9% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -16%
1.52/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.44
+6% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
316 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 72%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
21.5 Crosses 18.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.19 xG 1.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
288 Passes 328
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.07.2025 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 3-0 HT 2-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
05.05.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-1 HT 0-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
23.04.2023 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 2-3 HT 2-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
18.09.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 5-0 HT 2-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
3-1
AWAY Monterey Bay
2.31 xG 0.77
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
153 Passes 343
61% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven saw off Monterey Bay 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Indy Eleven as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 37% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 63%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.31 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Indy Eleven and 2.00 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?

Indy Eleven 3-1 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 51%, draw 27%, Monterey Bay 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Indy Eleven) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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