Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Indy Eleven v Monterey Bay — Team-Based Signals
Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
2-3
HT 2-1
Monterey Bay
USLP
5-0
HT 2-0
Indy Eleven
USLP
Indy Eleven 3-1 Monterey Bay — Actual Match Statistics
Indy Eleven saw off Monterey Bay 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Indy Eleven as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Indy Eleven had 37% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 63%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.31 to 0.77.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Indy Eleven and 2.00 for Monterey Bay.
What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
Indy Eleven 3-1 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 51%, draw 27%, Monterey Bay 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Indy Eleven) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.