Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 12 May 2024

Sporting Kansas City
1-2 HT 0-1
Houston Dynamo
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.43
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.47
6+ Goals
11%
13.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.13
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
11%
4.91
X/2
10%
6.5
X/X
10%
4.36
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
27.0
2/2
10%
4.66
2/X
9%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 11% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.5pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -2%
1.42/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.50
-6% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.9 Crosses 14.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.1

Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Kansas City
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Houston Dynamo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.30 xG 1.22
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 Passes 402
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.02.2024 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
27.11.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
24.09.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 2-1 HT 2-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
09.07.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-2 HT 1-1 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
11.05.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABDK
11.09.2022 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD

Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Houston Dynamo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Kansas City
1-2
AWAY Houston Dynamo
0.71 xG 1.27
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 3
374 Passes 451
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Houston Dynamo squeezed past Sporting Kansas City 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Kansas City at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Sporting Kansas City had 46% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 54%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 0.71 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Houston Dynamo led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.00 for Houston Dynamo.

What was the final score of Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo?

Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Houston Dynamo in the USA - Major League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sporting Kansas City 43%, draw 28%, Houston Dynamo 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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