Hatayspor 2-1 MKE Ankaragücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.45
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.46
6+ Goals
9%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 30% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.6pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
35%
Away Win
35%
+0.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.4pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hatayspor EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü EU Bookmakers 38%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
1.05/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.58
-19% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 81%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.7 Crosses 15.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hatayspor
1W-3D-2L
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.64 xG 2.03
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
346 Passes 284
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2023 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 0-0 HT 0-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
30.10.2022 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 4-1 HT 1-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
27.02.2021 Hatayspor Hatayspor 4-1 HT 1-1 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
15.12.2020 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 2-0 HT 0-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
18.12.2016 Hatayspor Hatayspor 1-1 HT 1-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü S2-K
20.09.2014 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 0-0 HT 0-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor S2-K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hatayspor
2-1
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü
1.56 xG 2.22
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
278 Passes 455
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 17
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hatayspor vs MKE Ankaragücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hatayspor nicked a narrow win over MKE Ankaragücü 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Hatayspor made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hatayspor had 40% of the ball to MKE Ankaragücü's 60%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.56 to 2.22 — the balance of chances actually favoured MKE Ankaragücü.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MKE Ankaragücü led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hatayspor and 1.33 for MKE Ankaragücü.

What was the final score of Hatayspor vs MKE Ankaragücü?

Hatayspor 2-1 MKE Ankaragücü in the Turkey - Super League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hatayspor vs MKE Ankaragücü?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hatayspor win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Hatayspor 35%, draw 30%, MKE Ankaragücü 35%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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