Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 Galatasaray — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.34
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
51%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.57
2-3 Goals
39%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.64
6+ Goals
12%
6.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
9.56
1/2
6%
20.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
16.95
X/1
5%
13.7
X/2
19%
3.88
X/X
9%
7.1
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
26%
1.72
2/X
6%
16.6
Value flag · 1/X at 16.95 — our 10% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
16%
+7.7pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.6pp
51%
Away Win
64%
-13.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.7pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 69%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +8%
0.99/2.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/1.08
+19% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +8%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
263 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 82%
12.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.3
10.5 Crosses 20.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Galatasaray
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.76 xG 2.61
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
296 Passes 442
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.02.2024 Galatasaray Galatasaray 0-2 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TÜK
20.12.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-0 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
23.04.2023 Galatasaray Galatasaray 3-3 HT 2-3 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
28.10.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 HT 0-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
02.04.2022 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-0 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
07.11.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 HT 0-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
2-3
AWAY Galatasaray
1.08 xG 1.29
35% Ball Possession 65%
15 Total Shots 25
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 10
213 Passes 463
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 39
18 Crosses 35
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray squeezed past Fatih Karagümrük 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Galatasaray as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 35% of the ball to Galatasaray's 65%, shots finished 15-25, expected goals 1.08 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galatasaray led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.50 for Galatasaray.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?

Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 Galatasaray in the Turkey - Super League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?

Before kick-off our model rated an Galatasaray win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 24%, draw 26%, Galatasaray 51%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Galatasaray), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Galatasaray) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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