Sivasspor 0-1 Başakşehir FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.12
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.76
6+ Goals
10%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 31% vs market 26.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.67
1/2
11%
27.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
12%
6.4
X/2
12%
4.77
X/X
14%
4.48
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.1
2/X
10%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.2pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.4pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-4.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sivasspor EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 46%
+8% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.36/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.08
+6% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +28%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 82%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
17.8 Crosses 18.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sivasspor
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Başakşehir FK
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.13
42% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
328 Passes 510
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.12.2023 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 3-1 HT 1-1 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
09.04.2023 Sivasspor Sivasspor 1-1 HT 1-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
10.10.2022 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 0-2 HT 0-1 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
10.04.2022 Sivasspor Sivasspor 0-2 HT 0-1 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
20.11.2021 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-1 HT 2-0 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
08.05.2021 Sivasspor Sivasspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sivasspor
0-1
AWAY Başakşehir FK
0.54 xG 1.80
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 3
216 Passes 437
76% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sivasspor vs Başakşehir FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Başakşehir FK squeezed past Sivasspor 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 30% / 38% — and on the day Başakşehir FK made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sivasspor had 38% of the ball to Başakşehir FK's 62%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.54 to 1.80 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Başakşehir FK's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Başakşehir FK led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sivasspor and 1.33 for Başakşehir FK.

What was the final score of Sivasspor vs Başakşehir FK?

Sivasspor 0-1 Başakşehir FK in the Turkey - Super League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sivasspor vs Başakşehir FK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sivasspor 32%, draw 30%, Başakşehir FK 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Başakşehir FK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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