Kasımpaşa 3-1 Antalyaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.38
Over 2.5
51%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.53
No
51%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
23%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.08 — our 27% vs market 15.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.23
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
17%
4.44
X/2
13%
9.09
X/X
10%
5.92
2/1
7%
20.6
2/2
12%
6.03
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.9pp
51%
BTTS No
39%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Antalyaspor EU Bookmakers 27%
-8% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.68/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.52
-14% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
23.4 Crosses 17.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Antalyaspor
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.55 xG 1.26
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
326 Passes 366
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.12.2023 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
06.03.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-1 HT 2-1 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
04.09.2022 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 0-2 HT 0-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
15.05.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-4 HT 1-1 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor TSL
21.12.2021 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 1-1 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
08.03.2021 Antalyaspor Antalyaspor 1-1 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
3-1
AWAY Antalyaspor
2.98 xG 2.05
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
341 Passes 358
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa saw off Antalyaspor 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kasımpaşa as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 49% of the ball to Antalyaspor's 51%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.98 to 2.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kasımpaşa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.17 for Antalyaspor.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?

Kasımpaşa 3-1 Antalyaspor in the Turkey - Super League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 47%, draw 24%, Antalyaspor 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kasımpaşa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kasımpaşa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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