TS Galaxy 3-2 Mamelodi Sundowns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 12 May 2026

📅12/05/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
12%
7.18
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
64%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.29
No
55%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.93
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.54
6+ Goals
8%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
4%
X/2
25%
X/X
12%
2/1
3%
2/2
31%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
12%
Home Win
12%
+0.2pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.5pp
64%
Away Win
68%
-3.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.0pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TS Galaxy EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 72%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
0.50/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.63
-20% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +39%
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
204 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 449 · 85%
10.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.7
9.5 Crosses 16.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TS Galaxy
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.89 xG 1.36
29% Ball Possession 71%
6 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
144 Passes 482
64% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.02.2026 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy 2-0 HT 2-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFK
05.11.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 HT 0-0 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy GAFPSL
22.02.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 HT 3-1 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy GAFPSL
11.02.2025 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy 1-0 HT 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
21.05.2024 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy 1-1 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
29.04.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 HT 2-0 TS Galaxy TS Galaxy GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TS Galaxy
3-2
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
2.80 xG 2.83
23% Ball Possession 77%
12 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 8
121 Passes 525
65% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 28
5 Crosses 41
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH TS Galaxy vs Mamelodi Sundowns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TS Galaxy edged past Mamelodi Sundowns 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Mamelodi Sundowns at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, TS Galaxy had 23% of the ball to Mamelodi Sundowns's 77%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 2.80 to 2.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for TS Galaxy and 1.50 for Mamelodi Sundowns.

What was the final score of TS Galaxy vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

TS Galaxy 3-2 Mamelodi Sundowns in the South Afrika - Premier League on 12/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TS Galaxy vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split TS Galaxy 12%, draw 24%, Mamelodi Sundowns 64%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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