Independiente Medellin 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 12 May 2026

📅12/05/2026 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
57%
-0.0pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+1.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 22%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.59/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/0.77
-2% / -60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +84%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
352 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.28 xG 0.45
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
366 Passes 253
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2026 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
18.10.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-1 HT 1-1 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
04.09.2025 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOLK
27.08.2025 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
28.04.2025 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
27.08.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-2 HT 2-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin edged past Fortaleza CEIF 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Independiente Medellin and 0.67 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Independiente Medellin 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Cup on 12/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 57%, draw 22%, Fortaleza CEIF 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ BTTS No
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