Liepaja 2-1 Super Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 12 Jun 2026

📅12/06/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.49
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
17%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
63%
+1.6pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.0pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+0.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Super Nova EU Bookmakers 20%
-10% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +3%
1.43/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.63
-3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +29%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 74%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.4 Crosses 16.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Super Nova
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.37 xG 1.23
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
397 Passes 202
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
39 Box Touches 20
28 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.04.2026 Super Nova Super Nova 1-2 HT 0-2 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.11.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 3-0 HT 2-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
25.08.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 0-3 HT 0-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
17.06.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 1-3 HT 0-3 Liepaja Liepaja LET
25.04.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 2-2 HT 2-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
11.11.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 2-0 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
2-1
AWAY Super Nova
1.84 xG 0.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
245 Passes 224
13 Box Touches 15
9 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja squeezed past Super Nova 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Liepaja had 50% of the ball to Super Nova's 50%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 1.84 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liepaja had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Liepaja and 1.67 for Super Nova.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs Super Nova?

Liepaja 2-1 Super Nova in the Latvia - Virsliga on 12/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs Super Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 64%, draw 19%, Super Nova 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liepaja) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LET More Latvia - Virsliga
12 Jun 2026
18:00 FK Tukums 2000 vs BFC Daugavpils Analysis →