Longford Town 3-1 Kerry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 12 Jul 2025

📅12/07/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.8pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.7pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Longford Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Kerry EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.33/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.08/2.67
-7% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -54%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
278 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Longford Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Kerry
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.05.2025 Kerry 2-0 HT 1-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
15.03.2025 Longford Town Longford Town 3-2 HT 1-2 Kerry İR1
24.08.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 2-2 HT 1-1 Kerry İR1
13.06.2024 Kerry 2-1 HT 1-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
06.05.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 2-1 HT 2-0 Kerry İR1
05.04.2024 Kerry 3-0 HT 2-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
POST-MATCH Longford Town vs Kerry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Longford Town saw off Kerry 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Longford Town as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kerry led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Longford Town and 2.00 for Kerry.

What was the final score of Longford Town vs Kerry?

Longford Town 3-1 Kerry in the Ireland - 1st Division on 12/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Longford Town vs Kerry?

Before kick-off our model rated a Longford Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Longford Town 43%, draw 23%, Kerry 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Longford Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Longford Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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