Bohemians 3-4 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.69
4-5 Goals
17%
4.25
6+ Goals
8%
22.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.43 — our 36% vs market 32.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
13%
4.79
X/2
9%
6.79
X/X
13%
3.84
2/1
11%
29.5
2/2
11%
5.32
2/X
6%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
43%
+5.8pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.0pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bohemians EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +2%
1.28/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.29
-12% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 72%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
21.9 Crosses 14.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bohemians
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Derry City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.11 xG 0.98
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
287 Passes 302
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
15 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.07.2025 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 1-0 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
30.05.2025 Bohemians Bohemians 1-0 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
21.02.2025 Derry City Derry City 1-0 HT 1-0 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
11.10.2024 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 0-1 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
04.10.2024 Bohemians Bohemians 0-2 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRK
13.06.2024 Bohemians Bohemians 1-2 HT 1-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bohemians
3-4
AWAY Derry City
1.99 xG 1.40
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 5
384 Passes 173
81% Pass Accuracy 67%
38 Box Touches 18
38 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bohemians vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City edged past Bohemians 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Bohemians at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bohemians had 63% of the ball to Derry City's 37%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.99 to 1.40 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bohemians.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bohemians and 1.17 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Bohemians vs Derry City?

Bohemians 3-4 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bohemians vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bohemians win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Bohemians 49%, draw 25%, Derry City 26%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bohemians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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