Karabağ 1-1 Zira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
13%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.13
No
50%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
27%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
60%
+3.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
13%
Away Win
16%
-3.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
43%
+7.4pp
50%
BTTS No
57%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Zira EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
2.17/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.48/1.54
+16% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Zira
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
06.04.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 1-0 HT 1-0 Zira Zira AZERS
02.02.2025 Zira Zira 3-2 HT 0-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
10.11.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-0 HT 1-0 Zira Zira AZERS
01.09.2024 Zira Zira 1-3 HT 1-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
02.06.2024 Zira Zira 1-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
10.03.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 1-0 Zira Zira AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Zira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ and Zira shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Karabağ at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Karabağ and 1.00 for Zira.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Zira?

Karabağ 1-1 Zira in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Zira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 63%, draw 24%, Zira 13%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Karabağ) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Under 2.5
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