Harrogate Town 1-0 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 12 Oct 2024

Harrogate Town
1-0 HT 1-0
Newport County
📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Harrogate Town vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.57
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.36
6+ Goals
12%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 28% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.5
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
17%
4.32
X/2
10%
7.91
X/X
12%
4.99
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
11%
5.81
2/X
8%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-5.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Harrogate Town v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 29%
-24% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +20%
1.12/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.23
-22% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
346 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 72%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
20.4 Crosses 16.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Harrogate Town vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Newport County
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.85 xG 1.72
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
330 Passes 199
70% Pass Accuracy 58%
13 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.02.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-4 HT 0-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
07.10.2023 Newport County Newport County 1-2 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
25.04.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-3 HT 1-2 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
27.08.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-4 HT 0-4 Newport County Newport County İN2
15.01.2022 Newport County Newport County 4-0 HT 2-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
10.09.2021 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 2-2 HT 2-2 Newport County Newport County İN2

Harrogate Town 1-0 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
1-0
AWAY Newport County
0.53 xG 0.35
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
259 Passes 383
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Harrogate Town squeezed past Newport County 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Harrogate Town as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 43% of the ball to Newport County's 57%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.53 to 0.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Harrogate Town and 2.83 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Newport County?

Harrogate Town 1-0 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Harrogate Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 44%, draw 26%, Newport County 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Harrogate Town), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Harrogate Town) ✓ Under 2.5
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