GIANA Erminio 0-1 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.87
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
41%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.56
Over
44%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.09
No
51%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.41
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
21%
4.96
6+
9%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
22%
+9.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
41%
Away Win
50%
-8.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
60%
-4.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
40%
+4.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.3pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME GIANA Erminio EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 54%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
1.09/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/0.91
+13% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
247 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME GIANA Erminio
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Padova Calcio
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2024 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio 2-0 HT 1-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
07.11.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 3-0 HT 2-0 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio İTCK
04.11.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 3-1 HT 1-0 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio İTC
10.04.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio İTC
05.12.2021 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio 1-1 HT 1-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME GIANA Erminio
0-1
AWAY Padova Calcio
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH GIANA Erminio vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio squeezed past GIANA Erminio 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Padova Calcio as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, GIANA Erminio had 55% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 45%, shots finished 10-7.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for GIANA Erminio and 1.60 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of GIANA Erminio vs Padova Calcio?

GIANA Erminio 0-1 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie C on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for GIANA Erminio vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split GIANA Erminio 32%, draw 27%, Padova Calcio 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Padova Calcio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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