Perugia 0-1 Virtus Entella — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.52
Over
47%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.29
2-3
39%
1.79
4-5
21%
5.34
6+
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.6pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.9pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-9.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+9.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perugia EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Virtus Entella EU Bookmakers 37%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +4%
2.61/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.10
+125% / +95% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perugia
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Virtus Entella
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.52 xG 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
266 Passes 384
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.03.2024 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 5-0 HT 2-0 Perugia Perugia İTC
30.10.2023 Perugia Perugia 2-1 HT 2-1 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella İTC
24.07.2020 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 0-2 HT 0-2 Perugia Perugia İTB
21.12.2019 Perugia Perugia 2-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella İTB
20.01.2018 Perugia Perugia 2-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella İTB
26.08.2017 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 1-5 HT 1-4 Perugia Perugia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perugia
0-1
AWAY Virtus Entella
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Perugia vs Virtus Entella
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Virtus Entella edged past Perugia 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Virtus Entella made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Perugia had 53% of the ball to Virtus Entella's 47%, shots finished 8-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Perugia had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Perugia and 1.17 for Virtus Entella.

What was the final score of Perugia vs Virtus Entella?

Perugia 0-1 Virtus Entella in the Italy - Serie C on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perugia vs Virtus Entella?

Before kick-off our model rated a Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Perugia 39%, draw 26%, Virtus Entella 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Perugia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Perugia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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