İspanya 1-0 Danimarka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
26%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
11.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
17.1
X/1
23%
3.64
X/2
9%
12.5
X/X
9%
5.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.15
2/2
7%
10.05
2/X
7%
18.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
62%
-9.2pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.5pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İspanya EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Danimarka EU Bookmakers 19%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
1.50/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.63
-9% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +111% / +15%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
443 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
16.8 Crosses 12.2
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İspanya
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Danimarka
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
20.08.2008 Danimarka Danimarka 0-3 HT 0-0 İspanya İspanya HAZ
13.10.2007 Danimarka Danimarka 1-3 HT 0-2 İspanya İspanya AVR
24.03.2007 İspanya İspanya 2-1 HT 2-0 Danimarka Danimarka AVR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İspanya
1-0
AWAY Danimarka
61% Ball Possession 39%
25 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
576 Passes 329
91% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH İspanya vs Danimarka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İspanya nicked a narrow win over Danimarka 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had İspanya as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, İspanya had 61% of the ball to Danimarka's 39%, shots finished 25-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, İspanya had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for İspanya and 0.67 for Danimarka.

What was the final score of İspanya vs Danimarka?

İspanya 1-0 Danimarka in the UEFA Uluslar League on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İspanya vs Danimarka?

Before kick-off our model rated a İspanya win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split İspanya 53%, draw 25%, Danimarka 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İspanya) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İspanya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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