Polonya 1-3 Portekiz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
50%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.3
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.42
1/2
7%
21.25
1/X
8%
15.4
X/1
11%
10.2
X/2
18%
4.02
X/X
8%
5.83
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.05
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.8
Value flag · 2/X at 14.8 — our 10% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
21%
+4.4pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.1pp
50%
Away Win
56%
-6.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonya EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Portekiz EU Bookmakers 61%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
0.70/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.71/1.29
-73% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +80% / +32%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
272 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 84%
13.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.4
12.2 Crosses 23.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonya
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Portekiz
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.52 xG 1.45
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
410 Passes 450
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.11.2018 Portekiz Portekiz 1-1 HT 1-0 Polonya Polonya AVUL
11.10.2018 Polonya Polonya 2-3 HT 1-2 Portekiz Portekiz AVUL
29.02.2012 Polonya Polonya 0-0 HT 0-0 Portekiz Portekiz HAZ
08.09.2007 Portekiz Portekiz 2-2 HT 0-1 Polonya Polonya AVR
11.10.2006 Polonya Polonya 2-1 HT 2-0 Portekiz Portekiz AVR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonya
1-3
AWAY Portekiz
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
306 Passes 570
88% Pass Accuracy 91%
POST-MATCH Polonya vs Portekiz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portekiz got the better of Polonya 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Portekiz as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Polonya had 37% of the ball to Portekiz's 63%, shots finished 12-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Polonya and 1.40 for Portekiz.

What was the final score of Polonya vs Portekiz?

Polonya 1-3 Portekiz in the UEFA Uluslar League on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonya vs Portekiz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portekiz win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Polonya 25%, draw 25%, Portekiz 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portekiz), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Portekiz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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