Crusaders FC 2-3 Linfield FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
49%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.1
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.78
6+ Goals
9%
16.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 30% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.31
1/2
15%
24.85
1/X
7%
15.0
X/1
9%
8.04
X/2
16%
4.11
X/X
9%
4.7
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.48
2/X
10%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
24%
+0.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
49%
Away Win
51%
-1.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crusaders FC EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Linfield FC EU Bookmakers 55%
-14% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.99/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.24
-19% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
268 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 499 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crusaders FC
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Linfield FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2024 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
20.01.2024 Linfield FC Linfield FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
02.01.2024 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
26.09.2023 Linfield FC Linfield FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
07.04.2023 Linfield FC Linfield FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
24.01.2023 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Crusaders FC vs Linfield FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Linfield FC edged past Crusaders FC 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Linfield FC as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Linfield FC led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Crusaders FC and 1.00 for Linfield FC.

What was the final score of Crusaders FC vs Linfield FC?

Crusaders FC 2-3 Linfield FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crusaders FC vs Linfield FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Linfield FC win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Crusaders FC 25%, draw 26%, Linfield FC 49%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Linfield FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Linfield FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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