Glenavon FC 0-1 Ballymena United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.89
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
4.04
6+ Goals
9%
18.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.18
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
29.5
1/X
5%
13.7
X/1
14%
5.74
X/2
15%
5.06
X/X
15%
4.29
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
13%
3.51
2/X
8%
13.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 8% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-2.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+4.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.3pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Ballymena United EU Bookmakers 42%
+11% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -10%
1.47/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.14
+7% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Glenavon FC
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Ballymena United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
30.08.2024 Ballymena United Ballymena United 3-1 HT 2-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
16.04.2024 Ballymena United Ballymena United 1-0 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
30.12.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
11.11.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-1 HT 0-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
02.09.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
11.04.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 3-2 HT 1-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
POST-MATCH Glenavon FC vs Ballymena United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ballymena United squeezed past Glenavon FC 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Ballymena United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Glenavon FC and 1.17 for Ballymena United.

What was the final score of Glenavon FC vs Ballymena United?

Glenavon FC 0-1 Ballymena United in the North Ireland - Premier League on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Glenavon FC vs Ballymena United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Glenavon FC win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Glenavon FC 36%, draw 28%, Ballymena United 36%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ BTTS Yes
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