Chesterfield vs Grimsby Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chesterfield v Grimsby Town — Team-Based Signals
Chesterfield vs Grimsby Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Chesterfield 3-2 Grimsby Town — Actual Match Statistics
Chesterfield edged past Grimsby Town 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chesterfield as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 53%, coin-flips both. At 1.62 (~62%), the over-2.5 price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
On the day, Chesterfield had 67% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 33%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 3.02 to 0.71 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chesterfield's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Grimsby Town led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chesterfield and 1.83 for Grimsby Town.
Chesterfield vs Grimsby Town Result & Final Score
Chesterfield 3-2 Grimsby Town in the England - Futbol League Cup on 12/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Chesterfield vs Grimsby Town Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Chesterfield 49%, draw 25%, Grimsby Town 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chesterfield), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.