Chesterfield 3-2 Grimsby Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 12 Nov 2024

📅12/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.18
Over
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
26%
4.22
2-3
40%
1.86
4-5
23%
3.01
6+
11%
9.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
49%
Home Win
63%
-13.6pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.2pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesterfield The Market 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Grimsby Town The Market 20%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
0.55/0.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/2.43
-49% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / -23%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 71%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
9.0 Crosses 14.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesterfield
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Grimsby Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.35 xG 1.77
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
241 Passes 238
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.09.2024 Chesterfield Chesterfield 2-1 HT 2-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
02.04.2022 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-4 HT 1-2 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İBSL
11.12.2021 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İBSL
02.12.2018 Chesterfield Chesterfield 0-2 HT 0-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town FAK
07.04.2018 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
05.08.2017 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-3 HT 0-2 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesterfield
3-2
AWAY Grimsby Town
3.02 xG 0.71
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
685 Passes 304
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
40 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Chesterfield vs Grimsby Town
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Chesterfield edged past Grimsby Town 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chesterfield as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 53%, coin-flips both. At 1.62 (~62%), the over-2.5 price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

On the day, Chesterfield had 67% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 33%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 3.02 to 0.71 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chesterfield's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Grimsby Town led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chesterfield and 1.83 for Grimsby Town.

Chesterfield vs Grimsby Town Result & Final Score

Chesterfield 3-2 Grimsby Town in the England - Futbol League Cup on 12/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Chesterfield vs Grimsby Town Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Chesterfield 49%, draw 25%, Grimsby Town 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chesterfield), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chesterfield) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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