Aarau vs Etoile Carouge Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aarau v Etoile Carouge — Team-Based Signals
Aarau vs Etoile Carouge Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Aarau 2-1 Etoile Carouge — Actual Match Statistics
Aarau nicked a narrow win over Etoile Carouge 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Aarau as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Aarau had 48% of the ball to Etoile Carouge's 52%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 1.09 to 0.80.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Aarau and 1.17 for Etoile Carouge.
What was the final score of Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?
Aarau 2-1 Etoile Carouge in the Switzerland Challenge League on 12/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Aarau 55%, draw 22%, Etoile Carouge 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.