Etoile Carouge vs Aarau Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Etoile Carouge v Aarau — Team-Based Signals
Etoile Carouge vs Aarau Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
Etoile Carouge 1-3 Aarau — Actual Match Statistics
Aarau got the better of Etoile Carouge 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Aarau as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Etoile Carouge had 50% of the ball to Aarau's 50%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 1.06 to 1.21.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Etoile Carouge and 1.40 for Aarau.
What was the final score of Etoile Carouge vs Aarau?
Etoile Carouge 1-3 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Etoile Carouge vs Aarau?
Before kick-off our model rated an Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Etoile Carouge 32%, draw 23%, Aarau 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.